President Joe Biden very likely did not anticipate polling results like what emerged from a CNBC All-America Economic Survey released Monday. A majority of the American people, and even a majority of Democrats DO NOT want him to run for President again.
Fifty-seven percent of Democrats say he shouldn’t stand for office in 2024 which is surprising but not necessarily fatal. However, the potential epitaph for Biden’s reelection is from the 66% of independents who do not want him to run either.
Any party or campaign seeking to win office needs to carry both their base and a hefty portion of the independent vote and as of this latest polling from CNBC Biden carries neither.
Trump, while his numbers have suffered since the Kanye West incident and his controversial call for “the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution” and the ordering of new elections to address “MASSIVE & WIDESPREAD FRAUD & DECEPTION” as he put it in on Truth Social, still carries a strong majority of his own party’s support at 63% along with a decent plurality of independents at 39%.
As CNBC notes, “Democratic and Republican pollsters both believe Democrats will likely support Biden if he’s the nominee and that Republicans will support Trump.”
Fox News tweeted a similar poll that showed 64% of Americans overall don’t want Biden to run again in 2024.
— Fox News (@FoxNews) December 16, 2022
The “if he’s the nominee” part truly hurts Biden and should only slightly concern Trump. Biden’s base appears to be eroding rapidly, Trump’s has taken a momentary hit and seems likely to rebound, particularly as the race draws nearer and Biden’s fumblings continue.
According to RealClearPolitics, in the 2024 matchups between Trump and Biden, where Biden held a four to seven-point advantage on Trump after trailing him consistently in national polls throughout November, Biden’s lead has already eroded down to a statistical dead heat of two points as of a Wall Street Journal poll on Dec. 14.
This could indicate that Trump’s recent decline and subsequent rebound in polling represents little more than a blip.