Another Republican Bows Out Of 2024 Presidential Run But Rumors Still Persist About His Future

Despite Governor Glenn Youngkin’s (R-VA) statement on Monday that he is not running for the presidency of the United States of America this year, rumors about a run continue to swirl, according to Just the News. Youngkin along with the Republican ticket won an upset victory in 2021 in the Old Dominion state. Virginia has drifted toward the Democrat Party as it has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate from 2008 onward and from 2013 until 2021 only Democrats won gubernatorial races. Youngkin’s victory in 2021 was on the narrowest margin of victory in the state since the 1989 gubernatorial race. Youngkin’s victory also helped flip the Virginia House of Delegates, its lower house, to the Republican Party.

The first-term governor, who cannot run for consecutive re-election in 2025 as per the Virginian Constitution, appeared to dispel rumors of tipping his hat into the ring for the White House in 2024 at the Milken Institute. He was asked if “you [are] going to be dusting off that fleece jacket and getting out on the presidential campaign trail later this year?” The governor replied that “No…I’m going to be working in Virginia this year.”

He added that “And so our House and Senate are up for full reelection this year. We have a House that’s controlled by Republicans and a Senate that’s controlled by Democrats. I want to hold our House, and I’d like to flip our Senate. And I think we’re doing a really good job in Virginia, and I think this is a chance to bring that to voters.”

The rumormongers have seized on the governor’s wording of “this year”, with some claiming that it leaves him open to declare a bid for the White House in 2024.

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The Virginian Republican is broadly popular and in fact much more popular than Joe Biden in the commonwealth. As The National Review noted, a Roanoke poll found Youngkin enjoying a 57 percent approval rating (with only 35 percent of the public disapproving). This was much higher than President Biden who has a 38 percent approval rating in the Old Dominion state and a 56 percent disapproval rating. This is shunning given that Biden officially won the state in 2020 by 10 percentage points compared to Youngkin’s 1.9 percentage point margin of victory in 2021.

However, as the pollster Richard Baris pointed out on Twitter, gubernatorial performances are not predictive of presidential performances in the same state. He wrote that “Gubernatorial elections are the least predictive or relevant re: presidential performance. They make Tip O’Neil’s “All Politics is Local” adage true. GWB won Texas by nearly 40 points (68/31) in 1998. Bob McDonnell won Virginia by nearly 20 points in 2009. Meant absolutely nothing re: presidential outcomes.”

Gubernatorial elections are the least predictive or relevant re: presidential performance.

They make Tip O'Neil's "All Politics is Local" adage true.

GWB won Texas by nearly 40 points (68/31) in 1998. Bob McDonnell won Virginia by nearly 20 points in 2009.

Meant absolutely…

— Rich Baris "The People's Pundit" (@Peoples_Pundit) April 28, 2023

Baris later further clarified when others pointed to former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R) and former Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker (R) winning their states which did not translate to Republicans sweeping those states on a federal level. He wrote that these were “Great examples though I was trying to stick with somewhat competitive states. Add to that list @MittRomney who was governor of Massachusetts [yet lost to Obama]…. Anyone really think Snyder could carry Michigan? Gubernatorial elections mean nothing for President.”

Great examples though I was trying to stick with somewhat competitive states. Add to that list @MittRomney who was governor of Massachusetts but Obama kicked his ass. Anyone really think Snyder could carry Michigan?

Gubernatorial elections mean nothing for President. https://t.co/6sgMMm3wLi

— Rich Baris "The People's Pundit" (@Peoples_Pundit) April 28, 2023