Black Voters Make Unexpected Shift Away From Democrats, Poll Shows

Black voters in the U.S. have shifted support away from Democrats from 2016 to 2024, the most recent New York Times/Siena Poll shows.

During the 2016 election, only 7% of black voters favored Republicans, which is a stark contrast to recent 2024 polling results, which show support for Republicans among black voters rose to 15%, according to The New York Times. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris grabbed 75% of support from black voters, however, former President and Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump reached 16%, which is a staggering 9% increase from 2020, according to September data from the Howard University Initiative on Public Opinion.

In September, a panel of black, undecided Georgia voters stated that they were leaning towards Trump, noting that the economy was better under the former president. When asked to raise a hand if they believed the economy was better under Trump, seven out of the eight members on the Cobb County panel raised their hands.

“He still has a business mindset, I think that lended somewhat and I think, yes, the trickle down, whatever previous stuff, and I think he just handles certain things a little better,” one individual on the panel who voted for Trump in 2020 and is leaning toward voting for him again said.

Individuals deemed “leaners” by the NYT/Siena Poll, who did not support Trump or Harris when able to select from various third-party candidates, were asked to choose between the Republican and Democratic nominees; 18% of black voters said they leaned towards Trump, while 15% said they leaned towards Harris.

Among the black voters surveyed in the poll, 83% were women, while 70% were men. The margin of error for the black electorate is plus or minus 5.6 points.