In his election analysis, Enten wrote, “Trump is not only in a historically strong position for a nonincumbent to win the Republican nomination, but he is in a better position to win the general election than at any point during the 2020 cycle and almost at any point during the 2016 cycle.”
He observed,
For CNN's heavily left-leaning audience, this must've come as quite an alarming headline. However, conservatives have taken notice as well with historian Larry Schweikart observing, "Concerned because Harry Enten wrote this."“No one in Trump’s current polling position in the modern era has lost an open presidential primary that didn’t feature an incumbent." Noting, “He’s pulling in more than 50% of support in the national primary polls, i.e., more than all his competitors combined.”
Enten continued his analysis by examining the results of polling versus election day performance referencing, "Democrats George McGovern in 1972, Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008." He found that the biggest comebacks for candidates occurred when the polls in the second half of the year before the election reached a threshold of 20 points. He pointed out that Trump's closest competitor in the primary, Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has dropped below the 20 percent mark nationwide, and none of the other candidates have reached double digits.
“This makes the margin between Trump and the rest of the field north of 30 points on average,” he added. “A look back at past polls does show candidates coming back from deficits greater than 10 points to win the nomination, but none greater than 30 points at this point."
Enten seemed to make an attempt at taking the edge off by claiming that "general election polling, unlike primary polling, is not predictive at this point," but added "Things can most certainly change. But for now, the chance that Trump is president in less than two years time is a very real possibility."
In a post on Truth Social on 1Monday, Trump stressed the significant lead he holds over DeSantis and the entire GOP field and castigated Fox for continuing to provide the governor what seems to be preferential coverage. He wrote, "In almost every poll, DeSanctimonious loses to Biden, while I am far ahead of Biden. Bret Baier of FoxNews (of course!) should have stated this fact during his SOFTBALL interview of DeSanctus. There are polls showing a 71 to 12 points up margin, but Fox just doesn’t want to go there. Why do you think I’m being Indicted every hour by the Left? I got DeSanctus elected, or he was “dead” at 3%, out of politics. Now he’s GONE once more, even with all of this CRAZY help from Fox - 2016 all over again!"
You can follow Matt Holloway on Facebook, Twitter, TruthSocial, Gettr, Gab & Parler.
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