CNN Data Guru Says Trump’s ‘Huge Gains’ With Minority Voters May Be Offset By ‘Small’ Losses Among ‘Key Demographic’

“It’s been a key demographic for him. It’s been his base and this is what’s so interesting, because we’ve seen so many groups this year moving in Donald Trump’s direction. So you would think his core group, his base of support would be doing the same. But in fact, it’s moving a little bit away from him. So this is Trump’s margin with non-college white voters,” Enten told host John Berman. “Unlike most voting blocs, this group is not moving towards him, it’s actually moving slightly away. So you go back eight years ago, where he won ’em by 33, You go back four years ago, he won ’em by 31.”

“Now what we look is we see them, the latest average of polls, he’s only up by 27. Now that may not seem like a lot, but given that we’re seeing these double digit gains, say among black voters or among Hispanic voters in some of the polls, the fact that we’re seeing this core group of supporters actually moving away from him, not just off of the 2016 baseline, but the 2020 baseline as well,” he continued. “I think that’s a rather interesting development.”

Trump has made inroads with key Democratic voting blocs, including black and Hispanic voters, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll.

“Why can a small difference with this group matter? Because look at what percentage of the electorate that they make up. So we can look nationally, right? Look at this, non-college white voters make up 40% of the electorate. That’s more than college whites at 29%. All other groups, voters of color at 28%,” Enten added. “So this is something that we’ve seen throughout the board, right? Which is that Donald Trump is making huge gains with groups that make up a smaller percentage of the electorate while he’s losing a little bit. But these groups that he’s losing a little bit of make up a much larger portion of the electorate.”

“But more than that, you know, we’re talking about the U.S. of A where they make up 40%. Why don’t you go to those key Great Lake battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin? They have out-sized import in those Great Lake battleground states,” he said. “Non-college white voters, look at this. They make up the slim majority of voters at 51%, way more than college whites at 30%, way more than all other voters at 16%. So if you’re seeing movement in the Great Lake battleground states among non-college whites, that could be a very big development, John.”

The data reporter noted that Trump is shedding some support from this demographic in these crucial swing states. Trump is leading Harris 1.2% in Michigan, but only holds a .8% lead in Pennsylvania and a .2% advantage in Wisconsin, according to the RealClearPolling averages

“And when you have a shrinking margin for Donald Trump, among his core group that makes up the majority of voters, it can make up for big shifts amongst smaller groups of the electorate and this is why Kamala Harris has still in the ball game right now,” Enten said. “It’s because even though she’s losing big league, she’s losing big league among groups that make up a small portion electorate and she’s making it up among groups that make up a big portion electorate, even if the movements are small. But it’s clear here.”