New Harvard Poll Has A Major Warning Sign For Kamala Harris's Campaign As Trump Leads Nationally

A new poll from Harvard/Harris X revealed on Tuesday that 45th President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris nationally over a week after the Democrats forced President Joe Biden to exit the race to install a more youthful candidate. Despite the best efforts of both the Democratic Party and the mainstream media to reinvigorate Kamala Harris' image, Trump has still maintained his lead. However, it has diminished somewhat compared to the last days of Biden's candidacy.

According to the poll, Trump is leading Harris by three points, with 48 percent support compared to Harris's 45 percent. From the 2,196 registered voters who responded, seven percent are unsure who they would vote for less than 100 days out from the election. When leaners were included in the poll responses, Trump's lead grew somewhat to four points, 52 percent, compared to the vice president's 48 percent.

While the poll, taken from July 26-28 with a margin of error of 2.1 points, shows Trump ahead, some have criticized the number of Democrats who were used in the sample. According to the poll's crosstabs, the sample of 2,196 registered voters comprised more Democrats than Republicans or independents. The poll included 654 Republicans, 544 independents, and 883 Democrats, which meant that Republicans accounted for 29.7 percent of the sample while independents were 24.7 percent and Democrats were 40.2 percent.

With the poll showing a clear Trump lead outside of the margin of error, the Trump campaign should be happy with the results, but the poll's other findings may be more worrisome. According to the survey, Kamala Harris saw a nine-point jump in favorability after becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee, with 48 percent of those polled having a favorable opinion of the sitting vice president. Meanwhile, President Trump's approval sits at 47 percent, meaning both candidates are virtually tied.

The poll also found that most voters believe President Joe Biden's decision to exit the race was the right move following his abysmal debate performance in June. Among the 2,196 registered voters, 79 percent believe Biden made the right decision, and only 21 percent disapprove of his choice. Over half, 55 percent, of those polled approved of Biden's decision to endorse Harris, including 92 percent of Democrats, thus avoiding a contested primary ahead of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August.

View the poll's full findings below:

You can follow Sterling on X/Twitter here.