New Poll In Key Swing State Shows Tight Race With Trump Narrowly Ahead, Leading Independents By Five

On Thursday, a new poll from InsiderAdvantage found that 45th President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Michigan, a key battleground state that could decide the 2024 race. The survey's results fall within the margin of error but show an extremely tight race as Harris and Trump vie for campaign dominance less than two months from Election Day.

The survey, conducted with 800 registered likely voters via phone from September 11 to September 12, found that Trump leads Harris by one point with 49 percent support compared to the Democratic presidential candidate's 48 percent support. One percent of respondents said they were going to vote for another candidate, and two percent remained undecided. While Trump leads slightly, his lead falls within the margin of error of 3.7 percent, meaning the race is still a toss-up.

"As is the case in most battleground states, the race is extremely close. While there remains some enthusiasm gap in many of these states, with an advantage to Democrats, Michigan has no gap whatsoever. The candidates are basically tied in every age demographic, with Trump slightly ahead among independents," InsiderAdvantage explained. "Trump enjoyed a five-point advantage among independent voters."

The polling organization revealed that the presidential debate had little impact on the race in Michigan. According to a poll conducted with Trafalgar, undecided voters did not move after Tuesday's debate performance, and the race remained tied at 48 percent. 

The InsiderAdvantage poll is in line with other polls taken in the Great Lakes State. According to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, the Democratic presidential candidate leads Trump by 1.7 percent in the state, with 46.7 percent support compared to 45 percent support for the Trump-Vance ticket. Cook Political Report also ranks Michigan as a toss-up, while Fox News has Michigan as leaning Democratic.

With its 15 electoral votes, Michigan will be essential for Vice President Harris to win in November if she wants to win the presidency. The Democrats' easiest path to victory is a sweep of the Great Lake states, which would net them exactly 270 electoral votes with Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania solidly in their column. However, if Trump can take away just one of those states, the Harris-Walz ticket's path to victory narrows significantly. Most importantly, Pennsylvania will be the deciding factor in winning the election because it is the largest swing state, with 19 electoral votes.

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