New Poll Out Of Key Swing State Shows President Trump Leading Vice President Harris Two Weeks From Election Day

A new poll from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (AJC) released on Tuesday found 45th President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by a healthy margin in Georgia, a critical battleground that could determine the winner of the presidency. The final poll from the AJC comes just two weeks before Election Day, as millions of Americans head to the polls to vote early in the national race. 

According to a survey of 1,000 likely Georgia voters, 47 percent said they backed President Trump in the November election, while only 43 percent said they supported Vice President Harris. Another eight percent said they were undecided, and one percent said they were voting for another candidate. The poll's margin of error of 3.1 percent means Trump has a slight edge overall in the survey, making it likely that he will win the state's 16 electoral votes.

President Trump narrowly lost the Peach State in 2020, and flipping the state is essential for his path to victory. Winning Georgia and North Carolina provides several pathways to victory for the Republican ticket. Trump only needs to flip Arizona, which, according to recent polls, is likely, and then win either Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania. The Trump-Vance ticket could also win Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania and defeat Kamala Harris with exactly 270 electoral votes.

Team Trump has focused on getting out low-propensity voters who often have not paid attention to the political horse race and have voted in previous elections infrequently, if at all. According to the Georgia Secretary of State's office, turnout stands at around 24 percent, with voters casting 1,735,916 ballots, about a third of the ballots expected to be cast throughout early voting and on Election Day. 

According to The Real Clear Politics polling average of the swing states, President Trump holds his biggest lead among all the battleground states in Georgia with a 2.5-point lead over Harris. The 45th president, however, leads in every other swing state as well, meaning a landslide victory is within reach. Just two weeks after Election Day, Trump led Harris by 1.8 points in Arizona, 0.7 points in Nevada, 0.4 points in Wisconsin, 1.2 points in Michigan, 0.8 points in Pennsylvania, and 0.5 points in North Carolina. If these polling averages held through Election Day, the Republican ticket would win 312 Electoral College votes compared to Harris-Walz's 226 votes, a blowout victory that would dwarf Trump's 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton.

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