New Poll Reveals Reliable Democrat State In Play, Independent Voters Flocking To Trump

A new poll released on Tuesday from Roanoke College revealed that 45th President Donald Trump is nearly neck-in-neck with Vice President Kamala Harris in the historically Democrat state of Virginia. The poll comes as the Trump campaign hopes to flip the state in a shakeup that could completely reshape the electoral landscape in November.

According to the poll, Harris is leading Trump by only three points in a head-to-head matchup with the Democrat candidate at 47 percent compared to Trump's 44 percent. When other candidates are thrown into the mix, Harris holds 45 percent support compared to Trump's 42 percent, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.'s six percent, Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver's two percent, independent candidate Cornel West's two percent, three percent preferring some other candidate, and two percent who remain undecided.

With the poll's 4.5 percent margin of error, its results are a good sign for Trump, who has held several campaign events in the state in recent months. While the Trump campaign was leading President Biden in some polls before he exited the race, the introduction of Harris as the Democratic nominee seems to not have had as big of an impact on the race as expected in the Old Dominion state.

"The switch from Biden to Harris made a difference in Virginia, but perhaps not as great as some may have thought," Roanoke College's Institute for Public Opinion Research senior political analyst Harry Wilson said. "The news for Harris is certainly better than it was for Biden, but her three-point lead is still within the margin of error."

The Harris campaign's biggest obstacle in the state lies with independent voters. According to the survey, which polled 691 likely voters, Trump is leading among independents with multiple candidates in the race by 16 percent with half of indepedent voters going for Trump and only 34 percent backing Harris. In a head-to-head matchup, Trump still dominates by double digits, with 47 percent, compared to Harris's 35 percent.

The large disparity amongst independent voters is likely caused by the fact that 45 percent of voters view Harris as more liberal than President Joe Biden and that Harris is viewed unfavorably by 53 percent of respondents comparted to 43 percent who have a favorable view of the vice president.

While President Biden won Virginia in 2020 by over 10 points, the potential political earthquake that could occur if Trump were to flip the state would reshape the electoral map. If Trump won Virginia in November, he would only have to win Georgia and Nevada to win the electoral college. With a popular Republican governor leading the state, the possibility of an unexpected flip can't be ruled out.

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