New Poll Shows Senate Republican Candidates Surging Across The Country

A new poll from the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) released on Tuesday revealed that Republican Senate candidates are solidifying their leads in Republican-dominated states and making significant ground in some swing states in the Rust Belt. The battle for control of the Senate comes down to a few hotly contested races, but Republicans are expected to flip the upper chamber following Sen. Joe Manchin's (I-WV) retirement and the weakness of Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) in Montana.

According to the NRSC poll, Democrats are on the defensive in Ohio and Wisconsin as Bernie Moreno (R-OH) and Eric Hovde (R-WI) campaign to replace the incumbent lawmakers. The poll found that Moreno is up by two points (45 percent to 43 percent) over Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in a state that Trump won by eight points in 2020. In Wisconsin, a critical battleground state for both presidential campaigns, Hovde holds a one-point lead over Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI). In addition to the two potential pickups in the Rust Belt, Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy leads by eight points against Sen. Jon Tester (50 percent to 42 percent). A GOP win in Montana would guarantee control of the Senate unless Democrats can defeat Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in the Lone Star State. 

The NRSC survey found that the other competitive Senate races are more likely to be won by Democrats. In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) is beating Kari Lake (R-AZ) by four points (49 percent to 45 percent). In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) is narrowly holding on by one point compared to challenger Dave McCormick (44 percent to 43 percent). In Nevada, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) holds a significant five-point lead  (48 percent to 43 percent) over Sam Brown (R-NV) despite the state becoming increasingly Republican in recent years. Lastly, the survey found that Republicans are competitive in Michigan in a two-way race with Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) being tied with Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) at 48 percent. On a full ballot, however, Slotkin leads Rogers by one point.

While the NRSC poll spells good news for Republicans hopeful of winning multiple Senate races this November, a leaked memo from the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) spells a different story. According to POLITICO, Republican candidates only lead in Montana, while Democrats hold a slight edge in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. According to the SLF memo, other races are less competitive, with Maryland, Michigan, and Ohio seeing the Republican candidate far behind the Democrat. The document also shows Republicans struggling in Texas, where Cruz is up by one point, and even Nebraska, where an independent candidate is challenging Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE). 

While the two polls show conflicting images of the various Senate races across the country, the likelihood of Democrats holding onto the Senate is low. Republicans would have to lose every competitive race in the swing states or suffer a major upset in Texas to not win control of the upper chamber.

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