New Poll Shows Trump Gaining Ground In Virginia, Leads In North Carolina

On Friday, a new poll from Rasmussen Reports for American Thinker revealed that 45th President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the swing state of North Carolina and is gaining ground in Virginia, a state that a Republican hasn't won in decades. Rasmussen also found that the two presidential candidates are neck-in-neck in Michigan.

The survey was taken from September 19-22, with 1,078 likely North Carolina voters, 1,086 likely Michigan voters, and 1,144 likely Virginia voters. It shows a tight race between the two candidates. The poll found that Trump is leading Harris in North Carolina by three points, 49 percent to Harris' 46 percent. A Democrat hasn't won the Tarheel State since President Obama's presidential run in 2008. Still, the Harris campaign hopes to flip the state and ruin Trump's easiest path to 270 electoral votes, which includes holding North Carolina, flipping Georgia, and flipping Pennsylvania.

In Michigan, the two candidates are tied with 48 percent support, and Virginia, a state not won by the GOP since President George Bush in 2004, is within three points with Harris at 49 percent and Trump at 46 percent. Early voting data from the Old Dominion state has shown that Republican areas have a significant lead in turnout compared to more Democrat-dominated regions.

Trump's growing competitiveness in these swing states likely stems from his record on the economy. According to the survey, 42 percent of likely voters in North Carolina, 35 percent in Michigan, and 32 percent in Virginia ranked the economy as their top issue. Border security, a key part of President Trump's campaign, ranks second in each of the battleground states as well, with 17 percent of North Carolinians, 15 percent of Michiganders, and 17 percent of Virginians ranking border security as their second priority issue. 

While Trump is continually ranked as being more trusted on the economy and the border, the Harris campaign is often more trusted on abortion, the third priority issue for swing state voters, than the GOP candidate. Rasmussen found that 12 percent of North Carolinians, 15 percent of Michiganders, and 13 percent of Virginians ranked abortion as their third highest priority in the 2024 election.

"What seems to drive the tie is the four issues that concern Michigan voters: the economy, immigration, energy policy, and abortion," said American Thinker managing editor Andrea Widburg. "On the first three, a majority of voters believe that Trump is the stronger candidate.… Regarding the economy, poll respondents say they are not better off now than they were four years ago (53% to 36%), and they do not believe their children will be better off (50% to 23%). When they think back to Biden's economic policies, 43% of those polled say the policies leave them less likely to vote for Harris. That is reflected in the fact that 49% of those polled believe Trump is the candidate who can be trusted to improve the economy versus 46% thinking the same for Harris."

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