The latest Rasmussen poll on the midterms just dropped, and it was absolutely brutal for Democrats. On a generic ballot for Congress, 50% of voters would vote Republican, 39% would vote Democrat, and 5% would vote for some other party. 7% of voters were undecided.
This is actually a slight improvement for Democrats over February’s numbers, where Republicans had a 50%-37% lead.
Rasmussen reports that “The 13-point edge for Republicans in the latest poll is larger than Democrats enjoyed at any time during the 2018 midterm campaign, due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a 22-point advantage among independents. While 89% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, only 77% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 46% would vote Republican and 24% would vote Democrats, while 10% would vote for some other candidate and 20% are undecided.”
For historical context, the Democrats never held more than an 8-point lead in the run-up to the 2018 “blue wave,” and were neck and neck with Republicans by the time the midterm came around.
The poll also found that Republicans held a 13 point advantage, 48%-35%, among non-African American minorities. This is in line with a recent Wall Street Journal poll which found Republicans held an advantage among Hispanic and Asian voters.
Women were one point more likely than men to support Republicans.
Interestingly, when broken down by income bracket, Republicans did better, with a 30-point advantage, among voters making $100,000 to $200,000, than they did with either wealthier or less wealthy voters.
Rasmussen also “finds that 83% of Likely U.S. Voters believe the issue of election integrity will be important in this year’s congressional elections, including 62% who say the issue will be Very Important. Only 14% don’t think election integrity will be important in the November elections.”