Polling Expert Nate Silver Predicts Trump Has 64 Percent Chance Of Winning The White House In Latest Forecast

On Monday, the well-respected poll analyst Nate Silver revealed that his election forecast model predicts that 45th President Donald Trump holds a double-digit lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the probability that he would receive 270 electoral votes on November 5, given recent polling. 

According to the electoral model, Trump maintains a 64.4 percent chance of winning the presidency compared to Harris' 35.3 percent chance. When broken down by the probability to win each swing state, Trump has a 65 percent chance to carry Pennsylvania, 55 percent in Michigan, 53 percent in Wisconsin, 77 percent in Arizona, 76 percent in North Carolina, 69 percent in Georgia, and 61 percent in Nevada.

"We continue to see mediocre data for Kamala Harris, like a new Pew national poll with a very large sample size that showed the race tied nationally — which would probably translate to a loss for Harris in the Electoral College," Silver explained on his newsletter, the Silver Bulletin. "Although the model’s convention bounce adjustment will get phased out as we see more post-Labor Day and post-debate data, things are going in the wrong direction for her even without the adjustment. Her lead in our national polling average is down to 2.3 points after having peaked at 4.3 points on Aug. 23."

Trump's new high in Nate Silver's model comes after a New York Times/Siena poll showed Trump leading by one point nationally in the 2024 race. According to the survey of 1,695 likely voters, Trump has the support of 48 percent of the electorate compared to Harris' 47 percent. The poll found that Trump enjoys a large 13-point advantage over Harris on the economy and a 10-point advantage on immigration, while Harris has a 15-point advantage on the issue of abortion and a five-point lead on "democracy."

The poll results are great news for the Trump campaign, given that a popular vote victory in November would likely result in an electoral college victory for the Republican candidate. While it is possible that Trump could still win without the popular vote, like in 2016, a one-point lead nationally is devastating for Democrats, who normally would need to win the popular vote by two or three percent to win the White House. After weeks of media fanfare about Kamala Harris' candidacy, the impact has begun to wear off. To remain competitive with President Trump, the vice president will need to convince the American people to vote for her in the debate on Tuesday evening.

You can follow Sterling on X/Twitter here.