President Trump Dominates Vice President Harris In Key Battlegrounds, 10-Point Shift In Critical Swing State

On Monday, a new poll from The New York Times/Siena found that 45th President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in multiple critical battleground states that could decide the 2024 election in November. The poll comes as the campaign between the two candidates heats up with just 42 days until Election Day.

The poll, with a margin of error of between four and five percentage points per state, found Trump leading Harris by five points in Arizona (50 percent to 45 percent), four points in Georgia (49 percent to 45 percent), and two points in North Carolina (49 percent to 47 percent). The survey results show a neck-in-neck race, but Harris has lost significant ground in Arizona, particularly amongst Latino voters.

According to the survey, Arizona has shifted significantly in Trump's direction, with the shift between the September and August polls in the state being 10 points. The dramatic change in preference is largely thanks to Latino voters who have moved away from Harris by 11 points (60 percent to 49 percent). In contrast, Arizona Latinos moved to Trump by four points (37 percent to 41 percent), and the number of undecided Latino voters increased significantly (four percent to 10 percent).

The poll of the Sunbelt swing states comes after the first presidential debate between Harris and Trump, which many political commentators argued was won by the vice president. Despite Harris' performance, post-debate polling shows Trump has gained ground with a 10-point shift month-over-month in Arizona, no change in Georgia, and a five-point shift towards Trump in North Carolina. The shift of support in The New York Times/Siena poll, known as one of the most reliable pollsters in the country, is a welcome sign for the Trump campaign, which sees Georgia and North Carolina as essential to its easiest path to victory.

If the Trump-Vance ticket successfully holds its lead in the three Sunbelt states, Republicans would only have to win one of the Rust Belt states to win the White House. Trump could reach 270 electoral votes if he flipped Georgia, held North Carolina, and flipped Pennsylvania. While President Trump narrowly lost Arizona (Biden won by 10,400 votes) and Georgia (Biden won by 11,800 votes) in the 2020 election to President Biden, he held control of North Carolina (Trump won by under 75,000 votes). Democrats haven't won the Tarheel State since Obama narrowly carried the state against John McCain in 2008. However, the string of losses in the state in the past three presidential elections hasn't stopped the Harris-Walz campaign from targeting the state. The campaign has held multiple rallies in the battleground in recent weeks.

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