Prominent Pollster Reveals His Presidential Prediction Forecast - 'Harris Will Give The Democrats A Fighting Chance'

On Tuesday, top pollster Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, released his new election model that includes Vice President Kamala Harris instead of President Joe Biden following his exit from the race earlier this month. Silver's model predicts a close race, but Trump is a decisive favorite to take the White House in November.

"The Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast model relaunched today, and there's some good news for Democrats: Kamala Harris is in a considerably better position than Joe Biden, who had only a 27 percent chance of winning when he exited the race—and that was probably generous given Biden's increasingly evident inability to run a normal campaign," Silver wrote about the Democrats' newly revitalized presidential chances.

Silver's model predicts that Trump has a 61 percent chance of winning the White House compared to Harris's 38 percent chance. The model also predicts that Trump will win 280 electoral votes compared to Harris's 257 electoral votes. The pollster also predicted that if the election were held today, there would likely be another split between the Electoral College result and the popular vote, akin to 2000 and 2016.

"Harris will give Democrats a fighting chance. In fact, she's a slight favorite over Donald Trump in the popular vote, which Democrats have won in all but one election since 2000," Silver explained. "If an election were held today, we'd enter the evening with a lot of uncertainty about the outcome, both because the polling in the pivotal Blue Wall states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) has been close since Biden dropped out of the race and because there's some intrinsic uncertainty about where the race stands given how much news there's been lately."

The FiveThirtyEight founder pointed out that Harris has a much better chance at holding onto the reins of power than her former running mate. Biden's decision to drop out, supported by a broad majority of the public, has saved the Democrats and given them a fighting chance just three months away from the election.

Silver's prediction of the 2024 race is good news for Trump, who hopes to beat the odds once again and flip the Democratic stronghold in the Great Lake states to win the White House. Trump is leading significantly in Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, meaning he only has to flip one of the Rust Belt states to defeat the vice president. The race is less than 100 days away, and Trump's standing in the polls indicates he's the favorite to win an Electoral College victory on November 5.

You can view Silver's model here.

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