Trouble on the Homefront: DeSantis Gets Terrible News for 2024 Prospects as Trump Takes Over in Florida

A recent poll from Emerson College shows that Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is struggling to gain traction amongst the GOP Republican candidates even within his own state of Florida.

The poll found that 45th President Donald Trump is beating DeSantis with 47 percent support while the governor has only 44 percent support of respondents.

Other candidates that were named by respondents for the Republican nomination include former Vice President Mike Pence with four percent support, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley with two percent, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) with one percent, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo with two percent.

Among candidates who have announced, Trump enjoys 79 percent support while Haley has 16 percent and Vivek Ramaswamy holds only six percent

“Nearly one year out from the Florida Presidential Primary, DeSantis and Trump are in a two-way race for the Republican nomination, statistically even with one another,” explained the Executive Director of Emerson College polling Spencer Kimball. “While 90% of Republican voters approve of DeSantis, that does not translate into a firewall of support over the former President for the nomination in their home state.”

In addition to polling about the Republican nomination, respondents also commented about the Democrat’s potential nominee.

2024 Florida Republican Primary

• Trump — 47%
• DeSantis — 44%
• Pence — 4%
• Haley — 2%
• T. Scott — 1%
• Pompeo — 1%

Emerson (A-) | Mar 13-15 | 443 RVhttps://t.co/vnTCD9RIN4 pic.twitter.com/ZgREBbOEHG

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 17, 2023

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“Similar to the 2020 Democratic primary where Joe Biden received 62% of the vote, 61% of Democrats think Joe Biden should be the nominee come 2024, while 39% think it should be someone else,” the pollster notes. When listed with a list of potential candidates Biden holds 41 percent support, Vice President Kamala Harris has 14 percent, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has 11 percent, and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg has only eight percent. 

The poll also found that in a hypothetical matchup between President Joe Biden and the leading Republican candidate, a rematch of 2020, shows that they are statistically tied at 44 percent. However, three percent of respondents were undecided. Nine percent said they wanted someone else.

In a different matchup when presented with their own governor as the GOP candidate, DeSantis narrowly beats out Biden 46 percent to 43 percent. Four percent said they were undecided and seven percent said they wanted someone else.

While DeSantis seems to have an edge over Trump when it comes to defeating Biden, the margin of error on the Emerson poll is +/- 2.8 percent meaning that DeSantis is statistically tied with Trump when it comes to ousting Joe Biden. Nevertheless, it will be a difficult fight for either man to unseat the incumbent Democrat.

The Emerson poll shows, however, that Gov. DeSantis is struggling in his effort to win over GOP voters. While he has yet to officially announce, many see a shadow campaign via his book tour that has seen him travel to New York, Texas, and California in recent weeks.

This ‘shadow campaign,’ however, seems to be having the opposite effect of what DeSantis would desire. Polling from The New York Times shows DeSantis plummeting in the polls going from nearly even in a head-to-head matchup in January to Trump now dominating with an over ten-point lead.

DeSantis, on Defense, Shows Signs of Slipping in Pollshttps://t.co/pgFDk82B9d pic.twitter.com/RbWLUqOGaa

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) March 17, 2023

The most recent Emerson poll is bad news for DeSantis. If he can’t even win Florida, his home state, outright, then will his campaign even have a chance when it comes to winning Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina? 

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