Trump Dominated Every Demographic In Historic Iowa Victory

On Monday evening, Iowans across the state participated in the highly anticipated caucus to determine who they prefer as the 2024 Republican presidential nominee. With all caucusgoers counted, Trump secured 51 percent of the vote while Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) came in second with 21.2 percent, former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) came in third with 19.1 percent, and Ramaswamy was only able to win 7.7 percent support. After the full data was accumulated, Trump was proven to once again have a historic victory by winning every single demographic.

According to the Associated Press' VoteCast, Trump won a near majority, if not a plurality, of every single age group, with the 30-44 age group being his weakest with a little over 40 percent support. A CNN entrance poll taken prior to the caucus showed DeSantis winning the 17-29 age group. "DeSantis did NOT win the 18-29 demographic. CNN Exit Polls were wrong," pollster Rich Baris wrote on X/Twitter. "Taking a moment to do some basic math would've told you that (it doesn't get him to 50%). Trump won every single age demographic. The AP VoteCast was more accurate from age to evangelical to ideology."

"Trump won 52% of those 17-29 (smallest bloc) and 55% of 45-64 (largest vote bloc). He got 49% of the 65+, the second largest bloc," Baris explained. "Do the math. AP VoteCast was much more accurate than the CNN Entrance Polls."

According to the CNN poll, 30 percent of 17 to 29-year-olds went for DeSantis, 25 percent supported Haley, 22 percent supported Trump, and 21 percent supported Ramaswamy. Amongst 30 to 44-year-olds, Trump won 42 percent support compared to DeSantis' 29 percent, Haley's 13 percent, and Ramaswamy's 15 percent. Amongst those aged 45 to 64, Trump won 54 percent, DeSantis won 21 percent, Haley won 17 percent, and Ramaswamy won only six percent. Lastly, among Iowa caucus voters over 65, Trump won 58 percent compared to Haley's 21 percent, DeSantis' 16 percent, and Ramaswamy's four percent.

A similar Associated Press-NORC poll taken just before the caucus found that Republican women were essential in handing Trump a decisive and historic victory. Among those polled, 52 percent of women polled said they were going to vote for President Trump, while 50 percent of men said the same thing. Trump's support amongst women is compared to DeSantis' 23 percent, Haley's 17 percent, and Ramaswamy's seven percent. Amongst men, 21 percent decided to back Haley, while 20 percent supported DeSantis and eight percent said they were voting for Vivek. 

Trump's dominant victory over the competition sets him up nicely for the next Republican nomination contest on January 23rd in New Hampshire. According to Five Thirty Eight's polling average of the Granite State, Trump leads the pack with 44.4 percent compared to Haley's 31.4 percent, and DeSantis' 5.3 percent. Nationally, Trump has the support of 63.1 percent while Haley has 11.9 percent, DeSantis has 11.6 percent, and Ramaswamy has 4.1 percent.

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