Trump Leads Biden In Swing State Critical To Winning The White House

Pennsylvania is critical to a 2024 victory for 45th President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden. Both candidates are going head-to-head in the Keystone State this November, but recent polling shows Trump edging out Biden to win the state's 19 electoral votes.

According to a new poll from Emerson College, Trump beats Biden one-on-one with 45 percent of the vote compared to Biden's 43 percent. When third-party candidates are thrown into the mix, Biden's reelection chances take a nosedive with Trump sitting at 42 percent, Biden at 37 percent, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at eight percent, Cornel West at two percent, and Jill Stein at one percent. 

"Pennsylvania independent voters break for Biden over Trump 41% to 35%," Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball explained about the results. "There is also a gender divide: men break for Trump over Biden 50% to 41% while women break slightly for Biden over Trump, 44% to 42%."

Emerson College also asked Pennsylvanians their thoughts on Trump's indictments and President Biden's age. "Independent voters are more concerned about Trump's indictments than Biden's age: 61% of independents say Trump's indictments raise serious concerns while 53% of independents find Biden's age to raise serious concerns about voting for the president in 2024," Kimball said about his findings.

The poll also found that if Democrats tried to replace Biden with another candidate like Vice President Kamala Harris or Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), Trump would win the state by a landslide. When up against Harris, Trump would win with 49 percent support compared to her 40 percent. Against Newsom, Trump's margin of victory expanded with 48 percent support, while Newsom only managed to get 33 percent backing from Pennsylvanians.

Trump's dominance in Pennsylvania is just a mirror of his performance both nationwide and in other swing states across the country. According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Trump currently leads Biden by 1.3 points nationally. In the swing states, Trump's chances look even better given that he currently leads in every state critical for winning the presidency, including North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

While Trump's chances in Pennsylvania look promising, the fight for the Senate seat looks less optimistic for the GOP. Republican David McCormick (R-PA) is only able to garner the support of 39 percent of voters, while 49 percent still back incumbent Democrat Bob Casey (D-PA). Among those polled, 13 percent said they were unsure who they would vote for in the Senate race.

Pennsylvania is going to be a critical 2024 battleground. While not a necessity for Republicans to win in November, it would certainly assist the GOP's chances of winning back the White House and the Senate if they were able to flip it red as Trump did in 2016.

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