'We've Beaten The Odds Before': Democrats Panic After New Poll Shows Deep Blue State Under Threat From Republican Senate Challenger

A new poll from Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research released on Tuesday spells disaster for Democrats wanting to hold onto the Senate in November. However, the poll didn't survey a traditional swing state. Instead, it was the first independent poll taken in the deep blue state of Maryland, where former Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) is challenging Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks for Sen. Ben Cardin's (D-MD) open seat.

According to the poll conducted from August 14-20 with 600 likely voters, Hogan and Alsobrooks are neck-and-neck, with both securing 46 percent support, leaving seven percent of respondents undecided. Maryland hasn't seen a Republican senator since 1987, and Hogan's strength represents a real challenge to Democrats' control of the Senate as they try to defend several incumbents in Ohio, Montana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

In response to the poll's findings, Hogan explained that his campaign's "palpable enthusiasm" will allow Republicans to "defy the odds" in the Democrat-controlled state. "No one will outwork us. We have been to every corner of the state, reached almost 100 stops on our Strong Indepedent Leadership Tour, and contacted over 120,000 voters in the general election," Hogan explained in a statement. "We've beaten the odds before, and with the grassroots support of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans in every corner of the state, we are ready to do it again."

Hogan's competitiveness in the Democrat stronghold will prove to be a major opportunity for Republicans in the Senate. Hogan's campaign announcement earlier this year emphasized his gubernatorial record with the Republican writing on X, "I am running for the United States Senate – not to serve one party – but to stand up to both parties, fight for Maryland, and fix our nation's broken politics. It's what I did as Maryland's governor, and it's exactly how I'll serve Maryland in the Senate. Let's get back to work."

Hogan, a moderate Republican, was first elected to the Maryland governorship in 2014, where he narrowly defeated Anthony Brown, 51 percent to 47.3 percent. Hogan went on to win reelection in 2018 handily, 55.4 percent to Ben Jealous' 43.5 percent.

"Fifty years ago, my father, Maryland Congressman Larry Hogan Sr., made a very tough decision. He became the first Republican to come out for the impeachment of President Nixon. He put aside party politics and his own personal considerations, and he stepped up to do the right thing for Maryland and the nation," the former governor said in his campaign launch video. "Today, Washington is completely broken because that kind of leadership, that kind of willingness to put country over party has become far too rare." 

"My fellow Marylanders, you know me. For eight years, we proved that the toxic politics that divide our nation need not divide our state. We overcame unprecedented challenges, cut taxes eight years in a row, balanced the budget, and created a record surplus. And we did it all by finding common ground for the common good," he continued. "The politicians in Washington seem to be more interested in arguing than actually getting anything done for the people they represent. Enough is enough. We can do so much better, but not if we keep electing the same kind of typical partisan politicians." 

With Republicans guaranteed to pick up the senate seat in West Virginia and have a competitive fight in Montana, Ohio, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, the potential for Maryland to be thrown in the mix will make the Republican Party's chances of flipping the Senate in November even more likely. Forcing Democrats to defend the deep blue state will draw resources away from other swing states and potentially allow the GOP to pick up several seats on November 5.

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