New Swing State Polls Show Dramatic Shift Towards Trump As Kamala Slips In Blue Wall States

Less than a month before Election Day, the 2024 presidential race is entering the final stretch as the Trump-Vance ticket crisscrosses the country to convince voters in battleground states to support them on November 5. The Trump campaign's efforts seem to be paying off, with a new poll from Quinnipiac University showing Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Michigan and Wisconsin while being slightly behind in Pennsylvania.

According to the survey of over 1,000 likely voters in each state, Trump-Vance leads Harris-Walz by two points in Wisconsin (48 percent to 46 percent), three points in Michigan (50 percent to 47 percent), and trails Harris by three percent in Pennsylvania (46 percent to 49 percent). The poll, taken from October 3 to October 7, has a margin of error of 2.6 percent in Pennsylvania, 3.1 percent in Michigan, and 3.0 percent in Wisconsin. 

The October survey shows a dramatic shift month-over-month, given that the September Quinnipiac poll had Harris up in Michigan by five points, up in Wisconsin by one point, and up in Pennsylvania by six points. The stark difference between the two surveys shows Trump gaining ground on the Harris campaign as he makes inroads with working-class voters and minorities.

As previously reported by the DC Enquirer, local Democrats are beginning to panic after internal polling showed Harris struggling to maintain support in the Rust Belt. An internal poll conducted by Sen. Tammy Baldwin's (D-WI) campaign showed that Harris is falling behind Trump by three points while she maintains a two-point lead in her campaign against Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde (R-WI). Cook Political Report confirmed the rightward shift in the state, moving Baldwin's race from "Lean Democrat" to "Tossup." The survey is causing local Democrats to sound the alarm, given that the "blue wall" states plus Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District represent the easiest path for Harris to win 270 Electoral College votes.

To try to counteract Trump's growing strength in these states, some Democrats have advised that Harris needs to make a more populist message on economics, such as those made by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) during a recent appearance in Grand Rapids, Michigan. "We have got to understand that the billionaire class today not only has enormous political power, and that includes both political parties," Sanders said. "So one of the things that we have got to do is create a political movement in this country, led by the trade unions, which tells the billionaire class that we are tired of their greed."

The Harris campaign's lagging support in the critical battlegrounds is likely attributed to some organized labor groups abandoning the Democratic presidential candidate and Trump's strength among men without a college degree. The so-called "Blue Wall" states are essential for Democrats to win in November, and if Trump is able to chip away at any of the three states, particularly Pennsylvania, his path to victory becomes far easier.

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